The Cycles of Standard

The Pro Tour was a few weeks ago and with it came various new archetypes to explore, creating an entirely new metagame. For the first time in a while, there is no discussion of banning cards in Standard. I think Standard is in one of the best places it's been.

The PT Top 8 featured six unique decks. More decks that just missed, like Spellementals, had breakout performances. You would expect these decks to get narrowed down a couple of weeks later, but that has not been the case. The metagame is completely open. With that said, we had one meaningful event on Arena over the last week, which was an ACQ.

While they don't release official accounts of the decks that qualified, plenty of players posted their winning lists to X. Dimir Midrange and Lessons were the new top decks that emerged.

We also saw the PT Champ himself win with an updated Demons list. Other than that, Demons has been quiet elsewhere.

After the Pro Tour, nearly all Pro Tour players agreed that Spellementals was the deck of the tournament, as it had an impressive performance. Despite this, I told other players that I thought it was fine for an event with an overrepresentation of Cub decks. Since then, it's fallen almost completely out of the metagame after its beating at the Pro Tour. This has decimated Sunderflock deck's edge. Now, both Spellementals and 4c Elementals, which had a Top 8 berth, seem like they're solidly in the tier 2 category. 4c Elementals plays nicely against Lessons with its bevy of Wistfullness, so it can attack Monuments and Artist's Talents.

Cub decks haven't completely disappeared. A new deck has emerged as a top contender—Mono-Green. Landfall looks like a meme, but it's actually strong. Ross Merriam has been working a lot on the deck and playing it in several tournaments.

Ross's Latest List

Landfall has explosive starts with Cubs and Llanowar Elves, and it can play a grindy game with Greenshell and cards like Icetill Explorer and Saproling Nursery.

With the rise of decks like Lessons and Dimir Midrange, Cub decks are having a resurgence, so the format has become cyclical.

So, how can we get an edge in this format? Well, it's difficult to tell in a cyclical format which deck will surge each week. As I prepare for AC11, it's been hard to predict the metagame. The selection of players was odd because the qualifier events were a Historic event and two Sealed Deck events, so there were many Limited-only players. As a Limited enjoyer, I would never underestimate Limited players' skills. Regardless, my edge comes in if they're unfamiliar with testing for events like this.

This format's best edges mostly come with one of the top decks and having plans for the top four or five decks. Make sure your plans are solid, tested, and able to maximize your win rate in each matchup regardless of whether it's good or bad. You should not try to play a deck that you think beats the best deck. There is truly no best deck at the moment. Every deck has a few good and bad matchups, some more than others. Your edge is knowing your deck, the format, and its interactions.

This is unlikely to be a format where you just pick a deck that you kind of know and surprise the field. It's also not going to be won by picking a sideboard hate card that shuts down a deck. Everyone is actively solving the puzzle, so you're not going to surprise anyone. We have a legitimately fun and healthy Standard format with a lot of cool options. When some decks fall out of favor like Cubs, then decks will rise up that are weak to Cubs and beat other decks, which in turn triggers Cubs' comeback, like Ross suggests in this post.

I don't know yet what I will play in AC11, and I have an important 72 hours in front of me. While I have a general idea of the decks I like and don't like, I have only eliminated some decks that I absolutely will not play, one of which is 4c Elementals. I don't think its matchups are good enough to warrant playing. With Badgermole Cub in hibernation for a short time, I would need to see PT levels of Cub to even consider it. We are more likely to see a more evenly spread metagame, which means you don't want to play decks like 4c Elementals that were initially brought to attack the best deck.

Everything else mostly remains on the table. However, a lot of the work will get done this weekend, and I hope I can sleep well when I finally make my choice. For now, I want to focus on learning all the decks' strengths and weaknesses and report back when I find them all.

Next week, I'll write about my deck choice. It's been a long time since I've been grinding for a tournament. I'm enjoying it somewhat, but there are many downsides to devoting tons of time for minimal edge in a tournament that ultimately won't change my life much. I'm just trying to enjoy the occasional high-level event and not put too much pressure on myself to perform. Let's see if this old dog can learn some new tricks.