The Hobbit Sealed - Unbalanced & Fun

I went on vacation to Disney World last week (as of writing) and had a great time. However, I missed the first few days of Hobbit's release and had to play catch-up when I got home on Saturday.

I started my journey with a couple of quick drafts to read the cards and get used to the set before diving into the equitable Arena Directs.

It started a bit rough initially, and it took me until about my 15th run to get a box. My win rate was still solid. I kept losing deep into the event and getting gems back, so it didn't phase me.

Eventually, I played 25 Arena Directs, earning five Collector Booster Boxes with a win rate a smidge over 70%. The win rate cap is about 70%, as there are several people with serious volume who can achieve that, so I must be doing something right.

Hobbit is a small set. While it only supports five color combinations, you can go off the beaten path because a lot of the gold cards are hybrid, so you can play them in other spots. In fact, one of my most commonly played archetypes is Orzhov when it's not a supported archetype.

It's well known that black is the best color, at least in Sealed, and it's the best by an amount I haven't seen before. It's good for just about every reason a color can be good. It has great two-drops, tons of removal relative to other colors, and great rares and uncommons. Every black common is at least playable, and many of them are outright good.

I've followed a blueprint for building my Sealed decks. At one point, I stopped reading my blue and green cards. This isn't to say there are not spots where you should play those colors. Unless I have a few rares pulling me in that direction, it's usually not how I build decks.

While Rakdos is known as great because of its depth at common and uncommon, I often play Boros or Orzhov, and, in some capacity, always Mardu.

Take a look.

This is only the last 22 of 25 pools. I had a BG and UB deck off-screen, two of the first decks I built before I figured it out.

Regardless of what colors I play, I prioritize two things. The first is two-drops. This set can be blisteringly fast, so you want a healthy amount of twos in your deck, even if they're not the premium ones. One reason for that is the Crude Bent Blade. You need something early to make that card less punishing on later turns because most players who open it play it.

The format is also fast-paced, and you want to deal damage early and leverage the board state so you can always attack. Sometimes this means taking a turn off from killing their great creature to play one of your own, thus swinging the race in your favor on a successive turn with timely removal.

This brings me to the next thing I prioritize: removal. Removal is important because there are a few creatures that can dominate games. It's also hard to win on the draw if you can't kill anything and are forced to block into their open mana.

Rares are usually the name of the game in Sealed deck. Even though there are some really good ones, this set is not all about rares. Normally, Sealed deck is slow. You can spend time setting up for your big splashy rares, take turns off drawing cards, or developing mana fixing or whatever else. However, in Hobbit you'll be dead before you get to untap with the rare you were playing towards.

I like to splash my good rares and play the core colors with the most two-drops and removal, and then fill out the rest of my deck with a nice curve. I don't want it to be really top-heavy. Missing a play on a turn is basically game over. This also means I'm low on playing value cards, one example being Ragged Short Spear. I don't want to spend time casting it unless I need it for synergies.

Thror's Map is a cool card that I go out of my way to avoid playing, despite it enabling splashes. It's fine in blue decks for a repeatable source of card selection, but I don't want the tempo loss incurred from playing it early. I'll happily play it if I have a few copies of Stir Up Trouble. I've learned my lesson otherwise.

I've also been looking at deckbuilding through the lens that most of my matches will be against black decks. Cards that are good against Crude Bent Blade increase a notch in favorability for me. That means a card like Goblin-town Flunkies is more palatable than normal. The same is true for Fearsome Goblin Pair, a card that makes it impossible for your opponent to cast the Bent Blade without being punished immediately by a massive amount of power and toughness.

The black mirrors get grindy with trades happening nearly every turn. You win via tempo occasionally. You usually leverage early tempo to buy enough time later in the game to put together a solid attack plan. You need some way to grind. There's not much raw card draw, and we need mana sinks like equipment or adventures. While Smaug, the Great Calamity doesn't look great, it kills most creatures in the format and provides a big must-answer threat in the late game. In Rakdos mirrors, it's a good way to pull ahead on spells.

One card I see people cutting far too often is Gathering of Darkness. I've watched a lot of great players to see what they're doing differently. I often see them cut this Gravedigger effect when they don't have bomb creatures to bring back. You don't need bomb creatures for this to pull you ahead on raw spells. Getting back a Ravening Warg that trades is great on its own.

Golgari has gotten a lot of love as one of the better color combinations. My theory is they're winning despite putting green cards in their deck, not because of it. There's basically no good green common, a couple of average ones, and the uncommons are equally as bad. Without rares, I don't see myself putting green cards in my deck often, but there are some corner cases. To me, it's just that: a corner case.

Blue seems a lot better, but it requires synergies. In Sealed deck, that's the luck of the draw. I'm more interested in figuring blue out in draft next week after this event is over. There are a few rares that would pull me into blue in some cases.

Some pools will be anomalies. For example, you may get six Azorious rares with multiple Bard's Company or similar, and then you'll go down that path. In general, look for a good curve, good removal, and I like to have a couple of equipment to make creature sizing customizable for various game states.

I advise avoiding soup decks. While there's plenty of fixing to enable it, the format is powerful and punishing. Adding variance for perceived power is a net negative in this format. I may change my mind in a best of three. Even in that case, you can sideboard into it when the opponent's deck lines up in that spot.

The Hobbit Sealed format is probably the worst balanced set I've ever seen. I also find the format's gameplay relatively fun and refreshing. It's a lot of close grindy games where every combat stage is relevant. A suboptimal color balance doesn't mean you can't have fun if you enjoy what the set asks you to do. I happen to enjoy it.

There are a lot of small decisions on moving equipment, casting removal, sequencing around Cruel Bent Blade, and a variety of other things that make the games tight and reward you for good play. I personally love that, so I'm actually having fun playing it. I took a few days off from the Arena Direct so I don't burn out, but I plan to play more over the weekend.

There will be more Hobbit Arena Directs and also a draft event with $2,000 prizes. I'll be diving deep into the format, so I can prep for those events. Next week, I'll work on draft and hopefully get to play some colors other than just Mardu. I'll let you know.